Lord Ashcroft’s polling data is the worst I have ever seen for the Labour Party in Scotland.
Labour is trailing the SNP in 15 of the 16 seats that he surveyed. These include previously rock solid constituencies like Coatbridge and West Dunbartonshire.
If the results were repeated at the General Election, in May, Willie Bain would be the sole remaining Labour MP in Glasgow. The word ‘disaster’ barely does justice to what this would mean for the party in Scotland.
A lot has been written about the political implications of a Labour wipeout in Scotland and the possibility that the SNP could hold the balance of power at Westminster.
Less consideration has been given to what it would mean for the party’s ability to fight future elections or another referendum.
MPs staff often provide the backbone of local party campaigns giving up countless hours of their own time to deliver leaflets, organise volunteers and canvass voters. After all, they have the added incentive that they are fighting for their own jobs too.
The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority do not publish the number of staff employed by Scottish MPs. However, the staffing costs are available online.
In 2013/14, the SNP’s six MPs claimed £679,880 towards the cost of employing staff.
The figure for Labour’s 40-strong Scottish Parliamentary Labour Group is more than six times higher at £4,763,466. This is also what they stand to lose if the Nationalists replace them as the dominant party at Westminster.
Defeat for Shadow Cabinet heavyweights, like Douglas Alexander or Margaret Curran, might grab the headlines, but the greatest damage will be out of sight. The councillor whose part-time job with an MP enables them to dedicate themselves to politics full-time or the researcher who spends their evenings knocking on doors.
Better Together relied on Labour to provide the foot soldiers for the referendum campaign. Next time around, that task is likely to be much, much harder.
